A Hybrid Solar Irradiance Nowcasting Approach: Combining All Sky Imager Systems and Persistence Irradiance Models for Increased Accuracy
نویسندگان
چکیده
The share of distributed solar power generation is continuously growing. This increase, combined with the intermittent nature resource creates new challenges for all relevant stakeholders, from to transmission and demand. Insufficient consideration intra-minute intra-hour variabilities might lead grid instabilities. Therefore, relevance nowcasts (shortest-term forecasts) steadily increasing. Nowcasts are suitable fine-grained control applications operate plants in a grid-friendly way secure stable operations electrical grids. In space time, highly resolved can be obtained by sky imager (ASI) systems. ASI systems create hemispherical images. associated software analyzes conditions derives irradiance nowcasts. Accuracy decisive factor effective use goal this work increase nowcast accuracy combining persistence nowcasts, which persist prevailing conditions, while maintaining spatial coverage resolution system. hybrid approach combines strengths reducing respective weaknesses both approaches. Results validation show reductions root mean square deviation up 12% due approach.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Solar RRL
سال: 2021
ISSN: ['2367-198X']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/solr.202100442